How many bits for timestamps?
Signed 32-bit time_t, which counts seconds since 1970 runs out after 2^31 seconds; i.e. in 2038.
You probably knew that, so you’ve been looking at 64-bit numbers, and you’re probably thinking about using milliseconds instead.
Here’s a quick way to estimate how long that’ll last.
Note that $2^{10} = 1024 \approx 1000$ meaning that every unit of one thousand needs 10 bits.
Given 64 bits, take 10 bits for milliseconds, leaving 54 bits.
There are 60 seconds in a minute, which is pretty close to 64 (i.e. 6 bits). That leaves you with 48 bits. Similarly, 60 minutes in an hour. That leaves you with 42 bits.
Next up is hours. There are 24 hours in a day. The next largest power of two is 32, which takes 5 bits (0-31). That leaves you with 37 bits.
There are 365 and a bit days in a year. That’s going to need 9 bits (0-511). That leaves you with 28 bits.
That’s about 250 million years.
1 2 3 4 5 6 6
1234567890123456789012345678901234567890123456789012345678901234
............................DDDDDDDDDHHHHHMMMMMMssssssmmmmmmmmmm
YYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY....................................
| Units | Count | Approx | Bits | Remaining |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64 bits | ||||
| Milliseconds | 1000 | ~1024 | 10 bits | 54 bits |
| Seconds | 60 | ~63 | 6 bits | 48 bits |
| Minutes | 60 | ~63 | 6 bits | 42 bits |
| Hours | 24 | ~32 | 5 bits | 37 bits |
| Days | 365.25 | <512 | 9 bits | 28 bits |
| Years | ~250My (but read on) |
As it happens, we’re out by about a factor of 2. The actual number is roughly 536 million. Why?
We wasted $log_2({32 \div 24}) \approx 0.4 $ bits in the hours/day conversion, plus another $log_2({512 \div 365}) \approx 0.5 $ bits in the days/year conversion. This gives us about a bit (i.e. our factor of two). We also wasted some other fractional bits elsewhere (1000 ≠ 1024 and 60 ≠ 64). We erred on the cautious side, by using more bits than needed, so our result is a lower limit.
But at these timescales it doesn’t particularly matter (unless you’re doing astrophysics, maybe).
If we did it all again, but with microseconds, we’d use another 10 bits, giving us $2^{18}$ years, which is $2^8 \times 2^{10}$ or $256 \times 10^3$, or roughly 250,000 years.
Note that we’re still off by that factor of two, so it’s actually about half a million years.
COBOL will probably still be around then. You won’t.